Could North Korea declare War on the US? One expert works out possible scenarios

Rense.com

N Korea Military Tactics In A War With US A Strategy Of Massive
Retaliations Against US Attacks

By Han Ho Suk
Director Center for Korean Affairs
4-24-3

North Korea has not only the military power but also the political
will to wage total war against the United States.

(An English abstract of a paper)

1. North Korea Can Engage the US in Total War

North Korea is one of the few nations that can engage in a total war
with the United States. The US war planners recognize this fact. For
example, on March 7, 2000, Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, the US commander
in Korea at the time, testified at a US congressional hearing that
"North Korea is the country most likely to involve the United States
in a large-scale war."

North Korea, which can and is willing to face up to the sole military
superpower of the world, cannot be called a weak nation.
Nevertheless, Western press and analysts distort the truth and depict
North Korea as an "impoverished" nation, starving and on the brink of
imminent collapse. An impoverished, starving nation cannot face down
a military superpower. Today few nations have military assets strong
enough to challenge the US military. Russia, though weakened by the
collapse of the Soviet Union, has enough assets to face up to the US.
China, somewhat weaker than Russia, too, has strong military that can
challenge the US. However, both Russia and China lack the political
will to face down the US.

In contrast, North Korea has not only the military power but also the
political will to wage total war against the United States. North
Korea has made it clear that it will strike all US targets with all
means, if the US mounted military attacks on North Korea. That North
Korea's threat is no bluff can be seen from the aggressive actions
taken by North Korea since the Korean War armistice, most recent of
which is North Korea's attempt to capture an American spy plane. In
the morning of March 1, 2003, an American RC-132S spy plane, Cobra
Ball, took off from a US airbase in Okinawa, and cruised along the
East coast of North Korea collecting electronic signals. The US
intelligence suspected that North Korea was about to test a long-
range missile and the plane was there to monitor the suspected
missile launch.

When the US plane reached a point about 193 km from the coast of
North Korea, two MiG-29 and two MiG-21 fighter planes showed up
unexpectedly. The North Korean planes approached within 16 m and
signaled the US plane to follow them. The US pilot refused to follow
the command and left the scene posthaste. The US plane was tailed by
the hostiles for about 22 min but let the US spy plane go. There are
two key points to be observed here.

First, the hostile planes waited for the US plane at the Uhrang
airbase, located about 200 km from the point of air encounter. They
knew that the US plane was coming. The North Korean planes flew 200
km to intercept the US plane. Did the US plane see them coming? If it
did, why no evasive action? After intercepting the US plane, the
hostile planes dogged it for 22 min. Why no American planes for the
rescue? The US crew must have informed the base of the danger they
were in, but no action was taken by the base. If Kim Jong Il had
given the command, the MiGs would have shot down the US plane and
returned to their base before the US could have scrambled war planes.

Second, North Korea intercepted an American spy plane flying 200 km
from its coast. According to the international norm, a nation's
territorial air space extends 19 km from its coast line. The US is
the exception and claims air space of 370 km from its coast line; any
foreign airplane violating this extended air space is challenged or
shot down by the US military.

2. North Korea's Massive Retaliation Strategy

North Korea's war plan in case of an US attack is total war, not the
'low-intensity limited warfare' or 'regional conflict' talked about
among the Western analysts. North Korea will mount a total war if
attacked by the US. There are three aspects to this war plan.

First, total war is North Korea's avowed strategy in case of US
preemptive attacks. The US war on Iraq shows that the US can and will
mount preemptive strikes in clear violation of international laws,
and the United Nations is powerless to stop the US. Any nation that
is weak militarily may be attacked by the US at will. It is
reasonable for North Korea to deter US attacks with threats of total
war.

Second, North Korea expects no help from China, Russia, or other
nations in case of war with the US. It knows that it will be fighting
the superpower alone. Nominally, China and Russia are North Korea's
allies but neither ally is expected to provide any assistance to
North Korea in case of war. Neither nation can or is willing to
protect North Korea from attacks by the US, and North Korea alone can
and will protect itself from US attacks. This principle of self-
defense applies to all nations.

Third, North Korea's total war plan has two components: massive
conventional warfare and weapons of mass destruction. If the US
mounts a preemptive strike on North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plants,
North Korea will retaliate with weapons of mass destruction: North
Korea will mount strategic nuclear attacks on the US targets. The US
war planners know this and have drawn up their own nuclear war plan.
In a nuclear exchange, there is no front or rear areas, no defensive
positions or attack formations as in conventional warfare. Nuclear
weapons are offensive weapons and there is no defense against nuclear
attacks except retaliatory nuclear attacks. For this reason, North
Korea's war plan is offensive in nature: North Korea's war plan goes
beyond repulsing US attackers and calls for destruction of the United
States.

The US war plan '5027' calls for military occupation of North Korea;
it goes beyond the elimination of North Korea's weapons of mass
destruction. The US military regards North Korea its main enemy and
likewise North Korea regards the US its main enemy. South Korea, too,
regards North Korea its main enemy but North Korea does not regard
South Korea its main enemy because South Korea is a client state of
the United States and has no ability or power to act independent of
the US. North Korea's war plan is not for invading South Korea but
for destroying the US.

3. North Korea's Military Capability

All nations keep their military capability secret. North Korea is no
exception and it is not easy to assess North Korea's military power.
The US claims that it knows North Korea's military secrets. The
United States collects intelligence on North Korea using a variety of
means: American U-2, RC-135, EP-3 and other high-altitude spy planes
watch over North Korea 24 hours 7 days a week. The US 5th Air
Reconnaissance Squadron has U-2R, U-2S, and other advanced spy planes
at the Ohsan airbase in South Korea. In addition, the US has 70 KH-11
spy satellites hovering over North Korea.

In spite of such a massive deployment of intelligence collection
assets, the US intelligence on North Korea is faulty at best. Donald
Gregg, a former US ambassador to Seoul and a 30-year CIA veteran, has
admitted that the US intelligence on North Korea has been the longest
lasting story of failure in the annals of US intelligence. Gregg said
that even the best spy gadget in the US arsenal cannot read what's on
Kim Jong Il's mind. US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said that North
Korea uses underground optical fibers for military communication and
that it is nearly impossible to plant human agents in North Korea.

Although North Korea's military secrets are impervious to US spy
operations, one can draw some general pictures from information
available in the public domain.

a) North Korea makes its own weapons

North Korea has annual production capacity for 200,000 AK automatic
guns, 3,000 heavy guns, 200 battle tanks, 400 armored cars and
amphibious crafts. North Korea makes its own submarines, landing
drafts, high-speed missile-boats, and other types of warships. Home-
made weaponry makes it possible for North Korea to maintain a large
military force on a shoestring budget. North Korea defense industry
is made of three groups: weapon production, production of military
supplies, and military-civilian dual-use product manufacturing.

North Korea has 17 plants for guns and artillery, 35 plants for
ammunition, 5 plants for tanks and armored cars, 8 plants for
airplanes, 5 plants for warships, 3 plants for guided missiles, 5
plants for communication equipment, and 8 plants for biochemical
warheads - 134 plants in total. In addition, many plants that make
consumer products are designed so that they can be made to produce
military items with minimum modification. About 180 of defense
related plants are built underground in the rugged mountainous areas
of Jagang-do. Several small to medium hydro-power plants serve these
plants so that it would be nearly impossible for the US to cut off
power to the plants.

b) North Korea has its own war plans

North Korea is mountainous and its coasts are long and jagged. The
Korean peninsula is narrow on its waste. North Korea's weapons and
war tactics are germane to Korea's unique geography. North Korea has
developed its own war plans unique to fighting the US in a unique
way. North Korea's military is organized into several independent,
totally integrated and self-sufficient fighting units, that are ready
for action at any time.

c) North Korean soldiers are well indoctrinated

The US commanders admit that North Korean soldiers are highly
motivated and loyal to Kim Jong Il, and that they will fight well in
case of war. Karl von Clausewitz said that people's support for war,
military commanders' ability and power, and the political leadership
are the three essentials for winning war. He failed to include the
political indoctrination of the soldiers, which is perhaps more
important than the other factors cited.

During the Iraq War just ended, the main cause of Iraq's defeat was
the low moral of its soldiers. Iraqi soldiers had no will to stand
and fight, and they ran away or surrendered without fight. Iraqi
soldiers believed in Allah protecting them and became easy preys to
the US military. North Korean soldiers are taught to fight to the
bitter end. In September 1996, a North Korean submarine got stranded
at Kangrung, South Korea, and its crew abandoned the ship. Eleven of
the crew committed suicide and the rest fought to the last man except
one who was captured. In June 1998, another submarine got caught in
fishing nets at Sokcho and its crew killed themselves. Such is the
fighting spirit of North Korean soldiers.

d) North Koreans are combat ready

One cannot fight war without military preparedness. North Korea's
regular army is for offensive actions whereas its militias are
homeland defense. North Korea's regular army consists of 4 corps in
the front area, 8 corps in the rear area, one tank corps, 5 armored
corps, 2 artillery corps, and 1 corps for the defense of Pyongyang,
South Korea has 19 infantry divisions whereas North Korea has 80
divisions and brigades.

A North Korean infantry division has 3 infantry regiments, 1
artillery regiment (3 battalions of 122 mm rocket launchers and 1
battalion of 152 mortars), one tank battalion of 31 tanks, one anti-
tank battalion, one anti-aircraft battalion, one engineer battalion,
one communication battalion, one light-infantry battalion, one recon
battalion, and one chemical warfare battalion.

North Korea's militias consist of 1.6 million self-defense units,
100,000 people's guards, 3.9 million workers militia, 900,000 youth
guard units. These militias are tasked to defend the homeland. The
militias are fully armed and undergo military trainings regularly.

i) Artillery

North Korea has 2 artillery corps and 30 artillery brigades equipped
with 120mm self-propelled guns, 152mm self-propelled mortars, 170mm
guns with a range of 50 km, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers with a
range of 45 km, and other heavy guns. North Korea has about 18,000
heavy guns. North Korea's 170mm Goksan gun and 240mm multiple-tube
rocket launchers are the most powerful guns of the world. These guns
can lob shells as far south as Suwon miles beyond Seoul. The big guns
are hidden in caves. Many of them are mounted on rails and can fire
in all directions. They can rain 500,000 conventional and biochemical
shells per hour on US troops near the DMZ. The US army bases at
Yijong-bu, Paju, Yon-chun, Munsan, Ding-gu-chun, and Pochun will be
obliterated in a matter of hours.

The US army in Korea is equipped with Paladin anti-artillery guns
that can trace enemy shells back to the guns and fire shells at the
enemy guns with pin-point accuracy. However, it takes for the
Paladins about 10 min to locate the enemy guns, during which time the
Paladins would be targeted by the enemy guns Gen. Thomas A Schwartz,
a former US army commander in Korea, stated that the US army in Korea
would be destroyed in less than three hours.

ii). Blitz Klieg

North Korea has tanks, armored cars, and self-propelled artillery for
blitz klieg. North Korea has one tank corps and 15 tank brigades. The
tank corps has 5 tank regiments, each of which has 4 heavy tank
battalions, 1 light-tank battalion, one mechanized infantry
battalion, 2 self-propelled artillery battalions.

US tanks are designed to operate in open fields. In 1941, Rommel of
Germany defeated British troops in North Africa with tanks. The
largest tank battle was fought at Kursk in 1943, in which the Soviets
defeated Germans. In 1973, Egypt defeated Israeli tanks with anti-
tank missiles. All of these tank battles were fought in open fields.
The Gulf War and the recent war in Iraq saw US tanks in open fields.
American and Western tank commanders do not know how to fight tank
battles in rugged terrains like those of Korea. Tank battles in Korea
will be fought on hilly terrains without any close air cover, because
North Korean fighters will engage US planes in close dog fights.

North Korea has developed tanks ideally suited for the many rivers
and mountains of Korea. These tanks are called "Chun-ma-ho", which
can navigate steep slopes and cross rivers as much as 5.5 m deep.
North Korea's main battle tanks - T-62s - have 155 mm guns and can
travel as fast as 60 km per hour. The US main tanks - M1A - have 120
mm guns and cannot travel faster than 55 km per hour. North Korean
tanks have skins 700 mm thick and TOW-II is the only anti-tank
missile in the US arsenal that can penetrate this armored skin.

North Korea began to make anti-tank missiles in 1975 and has been
improving its anti-tank missiles for the past 30 years. North Korea's
anti-tank missiles are rated the best in the world and several
foreign nations buy them. The US army in Korea relies on 72 AH-64
Apache attack helicopters to kill North Korean tanks. Each Apache has
16 Hell-Fire anti-tank missiles. As shown in the recent Iraq war,
Apaches are fragile and can be easily shot down even with rifles.
North Korea has about 15,000 shoulder-fired anti-air missiles ("wha-
sung") and Apaches will be easy targets for wha-sung missiles. On
December 17, 1994, a wha-sung missile brought down an American OH-58C
spy helicopter which strayed north of the DMZ.

North Korea has 4 mechanized corps and 24 mechanized brigades. Each
brigade has 1 tank battalion (31 tanks), 1 armored battalion (46
armored cars), 4 infantry battalions, one 122mm battalion (18 guns),
one 152 mm battalion (18 guns), one anti-aircraft battalion (18
guns), anti-tank battalion (9 armored cars with anti-tank missiles
and 12 anti-tank guns), one armored recon company (3 light armored
cars, 7 armored cars, and 8 motor-cycles), one mortar company (6
mortars), one engineer company, one chemical company, and one
communication company. The US army has A-10 attack planes to counter
North Korea's mechanized units. In case of war, the skies over Korea
will be filled with fighters in close dog-fights and the A-10s would
be ineffective.

The bulk of North Korea's mechanized and tank units are positioned to
cross the DMZ at a moment's notice and run over the US and South
Korean defenders. The attackers will be aided by SU-25 attack planes
and attack helicopters. In addition, North Korea has 600 high-speed
landing crafts, 140 hovercrafts, and 3,000 K-60 and other pontoon
bridges for river-crossing. North Korea has 700,000 troops, 8,000
heavy guns, and 2,000 tanks placed in more than 4,000 hardened
bunkers within 150 km of the DMZ.

iii. Underground Tunnel Warfare

North Korea is the world most-tunneled nation. North Korea's
expertise in digging tunnels for warfare was demonstrated during the
Vietnam War. North Korea sent about 100 tunnel warfare experts to
Vietnam to help dig the 250 km tunnels for the North Vietnamese and
Viet Gong troops in South Vietnam. The tunnels were instrumental in
the Vietnamese victory.

North Korea's army runs on company-size units. Tunnel warfare is
conducted by independent company-size units. Tunnel entrances are
built to withstand US chemical and biological attacks. Tunnels run
zig-zag and have seals, air-purification units, and safe places for
the troops to rest. It is believed that North Korea has built about
20 large tunnels near the DMZ. A large tunnel can transport 15,000
troops per hour across the DMZ and place them behind the US troops.

iv. Special Forces

North Korea has the largest special forces, 120,000 troops, in the
world. These troops are grouped into light infantry brigades, attack
brigades, air-borne brigades, and sea-born brigades - 25 brigades in
total. These troops will be tasked to attack US military
installations in Korea, Japan, Okinawa and Guam.

North Korea has the capacity to transport 20,000 special force troops
at the same time. North Korea has 130 high-speed landing crafts and
140 hovercrafts. A North Korean hovercraft can carry one platoon of
troops at 90 km per hour. Western experts pooh-pooh North Korea's
ancient AN-2 transport planes as 1948 relics, but AN-2 planes can fly
low beneath US radars and deliver up to 10 troops at 160 km per hour.
North Korea makes AN-2s and has about 300 in place. In addition,
North Korea has hang-gliders that can carry 5-20 men each for short
hops.

North Korea has developed special bikes for mountain warfare. Special
forces use these bikes for fast deployments on mountains. Switzerland
is the only other nation that has bike-mounted special forces trained
for mountain warfare. The rugged terrains of the Korean Peninsula are
ideally suited for special forces operations. North Korea's special
forces will attack US targets in Japan, Okinawa, and Guam as well.
Japan's self defense units are being reorganized to counter this threat.

How good are North Korea's special forces? In September 1996, a North
Korean submarine was stranded near Kang-nung and the crew were forced
to abandon the ship and land on South Korea. The sub had two special
forces agents who had finished a mission in South Korea and were
picked up by the sub before the sub ran into a rock. The two men
fought off an army of South Korean troops and remained at large for
50 days, during which they killed 11 of the pursuers.

4. Weapons of Mass Destruction

a. Missile Readiness

North Korea is a nuclear state along with the US, Russia, China, the
Great Britain, France, India, Pakistan, and Israel. North Korea has
succeeded in weaponizing nuclear devices for missile delivery. North
Korea has operational fleets of ICBM and intermediate-range missiles
equipped with nuclear warheads. I have written on this subject
previously and will not replicate the details here.

It was May of 1994, nine years ago, when the US military planners had
first realized that North Korea had the bomb and devised nuclear
attack plans under William Perry, the then US Secretary of Defense.
Perry had estimated that North Korea would have about 100 nuclear
warheads by 2000. Dr. Kim Myong Chul, an expert on Kim Jong Il's war
plans, has recently confirmed that North Korea has more than 100
nukes including hydrogen bombs.

North Korea can produce about 100 missiles a year. It began to make
missiles in 1980 and has about 1,000 missiles of various types in
place, about 100 of which have nuclear warheads. These missiles are
hidden in caves and underground launching pads. At present, the US
has no fool-proof defense against North Korean missiles, and in case
of war, North Korean missiles can do serious damages: several
hundreds of thousands of US troops will die, and scores of US bases
and carrier battle groups will be destroyed. The Patriot anti-missile
missiles are deployed in South Korea but as shown in the recent Iraq
war, the Patriots are not 100% accurate or reliable even under ideal
conditions.

b. Biochemical Warfare

North Korea has a large stockpile of biochemical weapons. Each Army
corps has a chemical company and each regiment has a chemical
platoon. In the May 1994 nuclear crisis, Perry warned North Korea
that the US would retaliate with nuclear weapons if North Korea used
chemical weapons on US troops.

North Korean troops and citizens are well-prepared for bio-chemical
attacks.

5. North Korea's Defense Against US Attacks

a. Fortification

North Korea began to build fortifications in 1960s. All key military
facilities are built underground to withstand American bunker-buster
bombs. North Korea has 8,236 underground facilities that are linked
by 547 km of tunnels. Beneath Pyongyang are a huge underground
stadium and other facilities. About 1.2 million tons of food, 1.46
million tons of fuel, and 1.67 million tons of ammunition are stored
in underground storage areas for wartime use.

Most of the underground facilities are drilled into granite rocks and
the entrances face north in order to avoid direct hits by American
bombs and missiles. The B-61 Mod 11 is the main bunker buster in the
US arsenal. A recent test showed that this buster could penetrate
only 6 meters of rock. The latest GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-buster
can penetrate to 30m. North Korean bunkers have at least 80 m of top-
cover of solid rocks. North Korea has many false caves that emit
heats that will misdirect unwary GBU-28/37 and BKU-113 bunker-busters.

The US military targets enemy command and control centers based on
the doctrine of chopping off "the head of the snake." With the top
commanders eliminated, the rank and file would be demoralized,
leaderless and would surrender. North Korea's extensive underground
fortification makes this strategy unworkable. In addition, the
underground facilities make US spy planes and satellites impotent.

b. Air Defense

North Korea has a large number of ground-to-air missiles. It has SA-2
and SA-3 missiles against low-flying enemy planes, and SA-5 missiles
for high-altitude planes. SA-5 missiles have an effective range of
250 km. SA-5 missiles can hit enemy planes flying over the middle of
South Korea.

North Korea has reengineered US shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles
captured in Vietnam, and designed its own missile, wha-sung. North
Korea began to manufacture wha-sung missiles in 1980. Wha-sung comes
in two models: SA-7 that has an effective range of 5 km and SA-16
with 10 km range. North Korea has more than 15,000 wha-sung missiles
in place.

In addition to the missiles, North Korea has 12,000 anti-aircraft
guns, including 37mm twin-barrel guns, 23 mm automatics, 57mm, 87mm,
and 100mm heavy guns. These are mostly manually operated and thus not
subject to electronic warfare.

c. Coastal deferens.

North Korea's coastlines are long and jagged. Coastal guns are placed
in fortified tunnels along the coastline. North Korea has six ground-
to-ship missile bases. North Korea has anti-ship missiles of 95km
range, and of 160km range. The latter are for hitting US carrier
battle groups over the horizon. North Korean anti-ship missiles can
hit ships anchored at Inchon on the west and Sokcho on the east.

America's main defense against anti-ship missiles, the Arleigh Burke
class Aegis destroyers are ineffective outside 20-50 km from missile
launch pads.

d. Sea Battles

North Korea has two fleets - the West Fleet and the East Fleet. The
West Fleet has 6 squadrons of 320 ships and the East Fleet has 10
squadron of 460 ships. The navy has a total manpower of 46,000. North
Korean ships are sheltered from US attacks in about 20 bunkers of
200-900 m longs and 14-22 m wide. North Korean ships are small and
agile, designed for coastal defense. North Korean ships carry 46km
range ship-to-ship missiles and 22-channel multiple rocket launchers.

The main enemy of the North Korean navy will be US carrier task
forces. The Russian navy has developed a tactic to deal with US
carriers task forces: massive simultaneous missile attacks. In
addition, Russia has developed the anti-carrier missile, "jun-gal",
that can destroy a carrier. China has developed similar tactics for
destroying US carriers. On April 1, 2003, North Korea test-fired a
high-speed ground-to-ship missile of 60km range. A US carrier task
force of Nimitz class has 6,000 men, 70 planes, and a price tag of
4.5 billion dollars. Destroying even a single career task force will
be traumatic.

A carrier is protected by a shield of 6 Aegis destroyers and nuclear
attack submarines. An Aegis destroyer has an AN/SPY-1 high-capacity
radar system that can track more than 100 targets at the same time.
An Aegis can fire about 20 anti-missile missiles at the same time.
Thus, a career force can track a total of 600 targets at a time and
fire 120 anti-missile missiles at the same time. The anti-missile
missiles have about 50% success under ideal conditions. In actual
battle situations, the hit rate will be much lower and the best
estimate is that the Aegis shield can intercept at most 55 incoming
missiles. Therefore, a volley of about 60 missiles and rockets will
penetrate the Aegis shield and hit the career.

North Korea acquired OSA and KOMAR high-speed missile boats in 1968,
and began to build its own missile boats in 1981. It has more than 50
missile boats, each equipped with 4 missiles of 46km range and
multiple rocket launchers. In addition, North Korea has about 300
speed boats, 200 torpedo boats and 170 other gunboats. In case of
war, North Korea's small crafts and submarines will swarm around US
career task forces and destroy them.

North Korea has 35 submarines and 65 submersibles. These crafts are
equipped with torpedoes and will be used to attack US careers. They
will also lay mines and block enemy harbors. North Korea has a large
supply of mines. North Korean submarines are small but they are
equipped with 8km rocket launchers and 70km anti-ship missiles, and
they could do some serious damage to US careers..

e. Air Combats

North Korea has three air commands. Each command has a fighter
regiment, a bomber regiment, an AN-2 regiment, an attack helicopter
regiment, a missile regiment, and a radar regiment. Each command can
operate independently. North Korea has 70 airbases, which are
fortified against US attacks. Underground hangars protect the planes
and have multiple exits for the planes to take off on different
runways. North Korea has several fake airfields and fake planes to
confuse US attackers.

It is said that North Korea's planes are obsolete and no match for US
planes. North Korea has 770 fighters, 80 bombers, 700 transports, 290
helicopters, and 84,000 men. In case of war, North Korean planes will
fly low hugging the rugged terrains and attack enemy targets. US
planes are parked above ground at bases in Korea, Japan, Okinawa and
Guam, and make easy targets for missile, rocket and air attacks. When
war breaks out, North Korean missiles, rockets and heavy guns will
destroy the 8 US airbases in South Korea, and any plane in the air
would have no place to land.

North Korea's fighter planes are ill-equipped for air-to-air combats
at long distances. but they can hold their own in close-quarter air
combats. MiG-21 fighters from Bongchun and US F-15 from Ohsan would
meet in less than 5 min, assuming they took off at about the same
time. In about 5 min, hundreds of MiG21s and F-15s would be swirling
in the skies over Korea. Ground-to-air missiles and air-to-air
missiles would have hard time telling friends from foes. F-15Es are
equipped with a radar system that lock on at 180 km for large objects
and 90 km for small objects. Sidewinder missiles have an effective
range of 16km, AMRAAM missiles of 50km, and Sparrow of 55km.

Korea is 100 km wide and 125 km long, and so US air-to-air missiles
would be of limited use and effectiveness, because North Korean MiGs
would approach the US planes in close proximity and commingle with US
planes, and air-to-air missiles will become useless and machines guns
will have to be used. MiG19s have 30mm guns, MiG21s have 23mm guns,
and F-14s have 20mm Valkans. North Korean pilots are trained to hug
the enemy planes so that air-to-air missiles cannot be used. In
contrast, US pilots are trained to lock on the enemy at long distance
with radar and fire missiles. US planes are heavily armed with
electronics and less agile than the light, lean MiGs that can climb
and turn faster than the US planes.

F-14s are about 3.3 times heavier than MiG21s, and F-150Es are about
3.6 times heavier. MiG21s are 16.6 m long whereas F-14s are 19.1 m
and F-15Es 19.43 m long. MiG21s cab climb to 18km, whereas F-1A can
climb to 15.8 km and F-16 to 15.2 km. MiGs get upper hands in close-
range dogfights in which agility matters. In Vietnam, US planes were
forced to jettison auxiliary gas tanks and bombs in order to engage
MiGs. F-150 E planes will carry BLU-113 bunker busters that weigh
2,250 kg each in the next war in Korea. Loaded with such a heavy
bomb, F-15s will become easy targets for North Korea's MiGs. US
fighter-bombers will be protected by F-15C fighter escorts.

MiG21s are North Korea's main workhorse. The MiG21 debuted in 1965 in
Vietnam and proved itself as an effective attack fighter. In 1999,
North Korea bought 40 MiG21s from Kazakhstan. During the Vietnam War,
MiG17s shot down dozens of American planes. North Korea sent more
than 200 pilots to fight in the Vietnam War. They were tasked to
defend Hanoi and shot down scores of US planes. North Korea sent 25
pilots to Syria during the 3rd Arab-Israeli war of 1966, and 30
pilots to Egypt and Syria during the 4th Arab-Israeli war of 1973. In
1976, North Korea sent more than 40 pilots to Syria.

f. Electronic Warfare

The United States excels in electronic warfare and no nation comes
anywhere near the US capability. North Korea began developing its own
electronic warfare methods in 1970. It is believed that North Korea
has advanced electronic warfare ability. It has numerous counter
measures for US electronic warfare. During the recent war in Iraq,
the US dropped e-bombs that disabled the Iraqi electronic devices.
North Korea relies heavily on non-electronic command and control
means, and hence US e-bombs will have limited impacts in North Korea.

North Korea trains about 100 hackers a year and has computer virus
battalions in place. These hackers are capable of interrupting US
communication networks. In a war game conducted in 1991 by US war
planners, North Korea came out the victor with and without nuclear
weapons. Kim Jong Il has no doubt that his army can beat the US army.

6. US Military Defeats in the Past

Military power dictates the outcome of war. In assessing the next war
in Korea, the military power of the opponents must be examined
objectively. Until now, North Korea's military power has not been
properly studied. In general, Western experts tend to underestimate
North Korea's military strength. Politicians in America and South
Korea play down North Korean threats for political reasons.

It has been said that North Korean army is large in numbers but their
equipment are obsolete, and hence it is a weak army. The US war
planners assess North Korean army using computer simulations of war
in Korea. US war plan for the recent Iraq war was refined using more
than 40 computer-simulated wars in Iraq. The computer simulation
models use weapon system features among other factors to determine
the outcome.

It is true that the advanced weapons were instrumental in the US
victory in the Gulf War, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. On the
other hand, the US army was defeated by ill-equipped foes in Korea
and Vietnam. The latter two wars show that superior weapons do not
always lead to a victory. North Korean and Chinese forces in Korea
and the Vietnamese forces fought with superior tactics and stronger
fighting fighting spirits.

In the next war in Korea, the US army will face an enemy much more
determined and better equipped than the army in the Korean War of
1950-53.

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